Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8701faf7b9e112230ad962342480189fcbe67ab7306ba81711deb41e4fe63de4

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $843,336
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $469,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $843,336 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7919…ca3fbacked Yes	0c	69,233$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	32,000$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	22,555$1,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,098.27	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	19,707$1,341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,340.76	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	4c	18,000$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	12,922$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.1	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	1c	11,900$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.5	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	9,316$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.55	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0a…4a63backed Yes	4c	9,023$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.44	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	8,010$1,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,056.79	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	2c	6,000$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	5c	4,605$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.94	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	4,331$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.13	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb4…917dbacked Yes	4c	4,027$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.67	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	8c	3,869$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.21	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	14c	3,773$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x219d…db61backed Yes	1c	3,739$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+62.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	3,546$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.55	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	7c	3,395$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.04	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a8…5f1abacked Yes	9c	3,300$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.5	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	3,300$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bc…ec29backed Yes	3c	3,188$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.31	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	2,788$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.48	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	14c	2,683$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.42	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	6c	2,651$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.04	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2592…839abacked Yes	2c	2,613$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	11c	2,580$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.4	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	6c	2,550$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.55	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	2,460$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	2,347$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.81	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	2,316$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.99	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	11c	2,199$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.56	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	8c	2,193$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.62	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x762d…9b6bbacked Yes	17c	2,191$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.44	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	6c	2,073$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	11c	2,052$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.87	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	13c	2,003$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.31	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	13c	1,954$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.14	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	12c	1,888$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.66	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	1,820$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.23	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	4c	1,719$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.34	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	13c	1,600$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	1c	1,595$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb914…d12ebacked Yes	13c	1,592$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	13c	1,582$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.52	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	7c	1,564$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc60…997cbacked Yes	6c	1,551$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.1	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	7c	1,543$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.11	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	16c	1,500$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	1,500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f11…a9dcbacked Yes	5c	1,468$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	13c	1,467$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.16	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	13c	1,400$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	1,385$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.12	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…f5a5backed Yes	11c	1,326$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.51	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,315$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.91	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7c0…6aa1backed Yes	10c	1,308$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.63	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	10c	1,300$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.44	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	15c	1,300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	1,279$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.66	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	4c	1,260$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.62	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	7c	1,217$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdffa…1ea3backed Yes	6c	1,212$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-30%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	7c	1,207$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2af…c94bbacked Yes	6c	1,204$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.25	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	10c	1,200$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.3	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	8c	1,166$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.42	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	2c	1,150$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	13c	1,143$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.63	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	1,123$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	10c	1,100$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	9c	1,100$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	16c	1,091$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	15c	1,035$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.25	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	15c	1,007$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.11	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03bf…a94bbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	12c	1,000$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4864…1351backed Yes	10c	999.98$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	10c	999.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	6c	974.07$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.44	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	965.79$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.75	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	10c	959.99$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.4	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	14c	926.69$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.2	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes	11c	924.45$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	9c	884.89$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.64	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	12c	837.05$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a9…d647backed Yes	5c	833.62$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	12c	832.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	8c	771.46$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.31	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0b…7c10backed Yes	8c	750$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	720$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.04	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	15c	700$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	8c	700$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	11c	699.97$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fa9…7633backed Yes	13c	692.31$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event