Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfab3a84226eaaa6d8e0ed8427f33affa524ae7de6feaf46c5191b38edd7efe23

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,800,171
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,326,432

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,800,171 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 359 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	123,023$6,279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116,743.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	10c	55,473$5,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50,173.23	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	52,433$526 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51,907.41	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	18c	50,999$9,087 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41,912.09	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	38,748$2,245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36,503.2	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	27,718$788 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,930.03	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	16,940$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,540.28	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b5…0f8cbacked No	20c	16,864$3,373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,372.87	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	8c	14,002$1,109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,892.86	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	2c	13,919$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,640.27	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	67c	12,000$8,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,908	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	11,281$822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,459.13	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	9c	11,088$1,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,038.41	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Yes	6c	10,745$603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,141.8	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	3cpaid	+78.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	11c	10,316$1,168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,147.7	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae2…98b0backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	9,952$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,678.36	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	21c	9,056$1,885 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,171.65	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	8,981$791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,189.14	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	8,765$1,258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,507.2	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	8,460$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,342.17	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	7c	8,431$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,880.83	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	62c	7,978$4,945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,033.4	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	7,307$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,168.42	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f8…8b6fbacked No	5c	6,900$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes	9c	6,538$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,958.85	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	3c	6,501$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,286.48	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	6,371$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,275.09	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	15c	6,311$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,391.79	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	9c	6,000$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,451.47	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	41c	5,802$2,354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,447.71	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	5,793$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,488.52	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	29c	5,550$1,634 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,915.54	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	2c	5,507$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,395.93	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	7c	5,149$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,778.2	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	5c	5,102$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,863.36	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes	14c	5,025$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,299.86	66	10.6%7 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+87.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	32c	4,839$1,551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,287.86	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	42c	4,786$2,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,765.83	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	4,711$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,584.46	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	4,589$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,471.21	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	21c	4,569$976 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,593.16	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	9c	4,538$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,143.32	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	79c	4,367$3,448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$919.37	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f96…e6a2backed Yes	4c	4,350$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,190	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+125.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	25c	4,333$1,084 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,249.19	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	4c	4,287$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,135.31	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	35c	4,197$1,470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,727.62	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	39c	4,083$1,580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,503.91	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	14c	4,003$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,437.86	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	41c	3,974$1,637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,637.28	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+114.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	20c	3,900$764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,136.1	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	10c	3,673$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,303.37	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	18c	3,615$659 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,955.47	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,518$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,499.75	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	3,443$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,256.96	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	8c	3,428$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,163.37	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	4c	3,422$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,296.33	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+38.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	3,330$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,268.98	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1707…9b9fbacked Yes	13c	3,297$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,881.33	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	45c	3,260$1,456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,456.36	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x640b…978abacked Yes	20c	3,165$624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,540.99	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	17c	3,087$527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,560.3	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	3,002$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,945.85	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	5c	3,000$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,864.99	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	11c	2,993$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,669.42	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	2,992$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,926.95	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No	14c	2,956$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.84	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	14c	2,950$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,551.22	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x101f…e9a4backed Yes	2c	2,908$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,854.65	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+281.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	2,900$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,821.46	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	4c	2,900$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,773.88	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	13c	2,820$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,455.47	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	2c	2,805$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,749.72	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	3c	2,764$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,691.15	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	6c	2,726$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,553.35	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	30c	2,617$796 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,820.5	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,573$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,537.52	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	11c	2,535$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,266.28	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	9c	2,499$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,279.34	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x138c…80c2backed Yes	3c	2,487$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,421.12	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+418.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	27c	2,474$666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,807.87	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	2,364$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,332.07	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4258…d263backed Yes	16c	2,360$382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,977.86	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	4c	2,359$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,263.41	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	2,335$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,290.42	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	4c	2,266$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,175.48	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	2,250$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,193.95	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	63c	2,242$1,405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,405.25	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,222$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,170.76	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed No	1c	2,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d22…a726backed Yes	58c	2,127$1,244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$883.08	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+71%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No	11c	2,122$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.79	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+4.1wins	+0.20per pick	9cpaid	+299.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	2,054$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,015.04	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afb…49c0backed Yes	1c	2,051$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,035.94	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+1,089.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	16c	2,000$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,682.06	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,960	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	2,000$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,962	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,899.99	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	13c	1,994$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,739.1	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event