Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f0114ab237959e5a4fad56ec364348836a1e0745fa989d502f444f36a009aff

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $234,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $151,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,732 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	16,665$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.46	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed Yes	0c	15,132$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.13	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	14,622$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.75	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	0c	12,999$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	8,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79c5…fbcfbacked Yes	0c	6,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	4,200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.95	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,057$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	4c	4,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	1c	2,501$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.95	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	1,882$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.57	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	1,500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes	2c	1,328$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	4c	1,249$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.85	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	1,165$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.63	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,160$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	4c	1,018$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.95	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	6c	999.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	763.97$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	713.34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	700$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	666.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	587.66$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	501.04$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b8…e7d5backed Yes	4c	499.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	5c	499.6$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.17	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	412.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	186	31.7%59 W · 127 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event