Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa71d8f9795c72c4573baf18a30dca215b9a4a7b7d9b8eb54ae6a02889eb1a5

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,595,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,231,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,595,671 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 740 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	120,168$10,642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,642.07	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	24c	38,428$9,113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,112.62	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…adb3backed Yes	1c	35,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	17c	29,211$4,876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,875.61	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	41c	22,062$9,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,152.04	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	25c	20,477$5,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,084.94	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	32c	19,049$6,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,135.99	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	8c	17,914$1,374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,374.37	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	17,072$1,854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,854.18	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	24c	16,733$4,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,076.39	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	16c	14,255$2,308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,307.92	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	40c	12,000$4,787 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,787.37	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	34c	11,244$3,852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,852.39	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	39c	10,001$3,870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,870	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	24c	9,630$2,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,324.22	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	8c	9,000$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	8,645$904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$903.93	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeceb…8d0dbacked No	73c	8,000$5,840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,160	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	20c	7,725$1,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,552.26	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	19c	7,623$1,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,459.4	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	7,600$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef02…02f8backed Yes	58c	7,288$4,235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,234.78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	26c	7,126$1,837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,836.72	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	39c	6,900$2,673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,673	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	27c	6,846$1,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,816.21	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c5…b315backed Yes	34c	6,826$2,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,301.51	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	45c	6,184$2,784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,784.44	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	12c	6,000$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.7	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c49…5251backed Yes	45c	5,866$2,621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,621.41	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	10c	5,800$593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$593.22	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	45c	5,656$2,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,570	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed No	67c	5,612$3,773 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,838.22	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed No	57c	5,490$3,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,365.39	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	40c	5,251$2,102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,102.3	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	4,708$3,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,567.67	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	4,541$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.29	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	24c	4,529$1,081 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,081.28	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	57c	4,428$2,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,908.5	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked No	75c	4,363$3,278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,085.21	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	29c	4,210$1,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,216.39	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes	62c	4,174$2,586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,585.65	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	38c	4,106$1,564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,564.16	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes	38c	3,981$1,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,509.6	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	27c	3,921$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050.17	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked Yes	30c	3,691$1,107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,107.22	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	3,626$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.57	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	13c	3,604$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.06	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Yes	56c	3,565$1,996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,996.36	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	3,518$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.58	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	31c	3,486$1,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,089.52	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7e…d49bbacked Yes	16c	3,115$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.38	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…f5a5backed Yes	20c	2,994$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.84	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc60…997cbacked No	63c	2,942$1,848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,093.94	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	19cpaid	+85.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	44c	2,838$1,255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,255.32	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	62c	2,827$1,760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,067.44	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	72c	2,747$1,991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,990.73	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	39c	2,693$1,062 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,061.63	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	20c	2,693$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.3	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	11c	2,574$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.92	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	28c	2,542$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.67	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	36c	2,525$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.88	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	35c	2,469$867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$866.94	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	8c	2,468$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.06	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	28c	2,412$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.08	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	6c	2,400$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	2,347$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.24	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8309…fbecbacked Yes	72c	2,346$1,698 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,697.56	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	9c	2,335$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdf…dd93backed Yes	17c	2,289$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	51	11.8%6 W · 45 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a0f…8f06backed No	49c	2,264$1,106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,157.27	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	17c	2,259$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.65	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes	53c	2,250$1,191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,190.52	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	3c	2,208$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.18	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	22c	2,200$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa1e…90f7backed Yes	40c	2,174$865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.26	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-4.0wins	-0.22per pick	45cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No	73c	2,174$1,593 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$580.68	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	73cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	8c	2,119$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.91	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2704…2427backed No	66c	2,090$1,375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	54c	2,073$1,113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.16	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	10c	2,070$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.7	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed No	55c	2,038$1,116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$922.38	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes	29c	2,030$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.35	118	34.7%41 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	8c	2,025$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.89	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	40c	2,020$804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.17	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	29c	2,002$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.05	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	6c	2,000$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.64	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed No	54c	2,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$920	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed No	40c	2,000$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,199.99	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	42c	1,997$830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	40c	1,959$788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788.35	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed Yes	52c	1,940$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	8c	1,899$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.88	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6bd…a17ebacked Yes	30c	1,856$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.56	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	8c	1,831$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	7c	1,831$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0551…b427backed Yes	59c	1,803$1,066 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,066.33	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43ff…b7a1backed Yes	63c	1,803$1,134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,134.24	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	61cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked Yes	51c	1,791$915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915.06	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event