TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1287…85ad

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
181
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT7448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 74 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$36.6
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$54
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.1
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+880.4%+$176.88
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+140.7%+$317.34
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.38
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$3.84
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$464.05
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$141.4
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.08
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$95.32
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.22
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$176
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$141.2
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$582Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+74.2%+$431.89
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$540
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$771Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$771.25
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$449.69
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$67.45
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.66
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+86.9%+$452.09
Showing 25 of 74 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT6150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.25
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$238
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.99
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$38.5
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$58.2
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$104
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$212
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$84
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$47
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$46.8
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$13.5
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$23.15
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-Inbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+119.8%+$108.99
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.4
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$39
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$25.99
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$135
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+92.3%+$144
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 1 Winnerbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+37%+$54
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT2661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.79
Nuggets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$57.17
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+40.8%+$29
Pelicans vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+77.5%+$87.35
76ers vs. Warriorsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+38.9%+$112
Trail Blazers vs. Kingsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$821Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+34%+$279
Raptors vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+85.2%+$138
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$703Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$703
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+66.7%+$280
Pelicans vs. Bullsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+33.3%+$75
Hornets vs. Cavaliersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+123.9%+$401.25
Kings vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+37%+$81
76ers vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+55.4%+$214
Bucks vs. Netsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$374.04
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+37%+$81
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+177.8%+$319.99
Heat vs. Magicbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$122
Jazz vs. Lakersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$38.05
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+112.8%+$42.4
Spread: 76ers (-3.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Knicks vs. Bullsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.01
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$124.2
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$96
Heat vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$48
Warriors vs. Bucksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$145
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$79
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+86.6%+$46.4
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.64
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$10.87
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$16.8
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$34.6
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+91.1%+$28.6
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$24
All 10 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$350
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.