TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Lakers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Spurs, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,729,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,979,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,729,798 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Spurs53c312,257$166,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166,318.2325248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Lakers67c219,271$146,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,055.465646.4%26 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Spurs28c170,002$47,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,499.9338248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lakers48c169,979$81,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,744.692,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Spurs50c123,647$61,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,614.616942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Spurs52c83,692$43,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,269.8120253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers46c66,797$30,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,038.7685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lakers51c58,818$29,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,821.0451350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers48c57,735$27,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,851.239,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccca…3b2bbacked Spurs47c57,000$26,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,8502330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Spurs46c51,130$23,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,507.591,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x591b…807cbacked Spurs45c50,400$22,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,6801136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5ae…0e0ebacked Spurs45c50,300$22,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,6351266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x051d…7679backed Lakers55c50,000$27,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,499.991080%8 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+41%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb870…e5c9backed Lakers55c50,000$27,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,499.971040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Lakers49c49,423$24,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,297.516352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Spurs68c48,950$33,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,092.8634062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lakers48c39,000$18,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,290.511,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Lakers36c35,189$12,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,438.6425925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6adb…a902backed Lakers54c32,251$17,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,912.08944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lakers51c30,966$15,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,210.271052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Lakers54c25,473$13,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,627.055350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Lakers47c25,000$11,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,2507946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Spurs45c24,304$10,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,857.355433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Lakers56c22,727$12,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,999.957739%30 W · 47 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Spurs51c22,000$11,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,2208939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Lakers50c21,998$10,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,051.3712160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Spurs14c20,530$2,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,968.3136148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Lakers50c20,436$10,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,21811558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Spurs50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Spurs52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,399.995442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Lakers48c19,750$9,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2707758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a69…a466backed Lakers51c19,326$9,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,469.531625%4 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-46%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lakers43c17,998$7,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,233.21,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Lakers53c16,000$8,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,58074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Lakers50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5004766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Lakers57c14,987$8,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,444.4120248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lakers76c13,984$10,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,409.283,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs50c12,950$6,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,518.752,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Spurs55c12,866$7,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,051.5247144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Lakers51c11,774$6,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,746.7735235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Lakers52c11,373$5,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,489.2330053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f6…6c1fbacked Lakers49c10,492$5,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,402.64366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Lakers56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40019351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lakers49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Spurs43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30012334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Lakers49c9,591$4,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,853.862,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d66…9dbebacked Lakers55c9,150$5,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,117.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b8…72b5backed Spurs45c9,000$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,050475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Spurs37c8,987$3,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,292.8781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13b4…cc7bbacked Spurs45c8,900$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,005450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b68…6b1fbacked Lakers55c8,900$4,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,004.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7577…9899backed Spurs45c8,800$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,960366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Lakers46c8,756$4,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,707.3547448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38ee…f142backed Lakers55c8,650$4,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,892.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c9…a86ebacked Lakers48c8,302$3,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,316.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c09…8e6ebacked Spurs46c8,298$3,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,816.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Lakers47c8,139$3,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,340.4841848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Lakers50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0005152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs60c7,800$4,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,662.528,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9609…29bdbacked Lakers51c7,768$3,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,806.23633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec4…d7cdbacked Lakers55c7,722$4,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff81…3616backed Spurs45c7,718$3,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,47310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8525…f152backed Spurs49c7,500$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,67510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x628b…ba54backed Spurs51c7,400$3,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,774.1240%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x194e…36a4backed Lakers54c7,400$3,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,404580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+76.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36a0…ba22backed Spurs45c7,333$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca2c…c27abacked Lakers55c7,201$3,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,240.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Lakers48c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6401241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Lakers51c6,950$3,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.677437.8%28 W · 46 L-9.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2918…3518backed Lakers47c6,936$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,676.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa689…73f4backed Spurs53c6,932$3,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,673.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Spurs49c6,884$3,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,354.7669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Spurs54c6,874$3,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,680.7238151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Lakers49c6,773$3,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,456.677149.3%35 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Lakers70c6,677$4,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.0114856.1%83 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bed…427ebacked Lakers50c6,528$3,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85fd…99c5backed Spurs47c6,522$3,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,065.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Lakers52c6,187$3,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,997.965655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Spurs50c6,150$3,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,07562351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe887…05cabacked Lakers47c5,614$2,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,996.421040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Lakers46c5,520$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,969.558846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Lakers42c5,433$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,170.0618142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Lakers47c5,332$2,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.435339.6%21 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x341e…9b67backed Spurs60c5,115$3,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,051.02955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+45.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Spurs49c5,100$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4996245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Lakers44c4,741$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,656.411,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Spurs54c4,597$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,462.1413250%66 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Lakers55c4,472$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.411741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Spurs52c4,455$2,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.5324650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Spurs52c4,404$2,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,271.5966744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Lakers38c4,325$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,673.1548739.8%194 W · 293 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfda…4fe6backed Spurs75c4,300$3,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2252951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Lakers29c4,131$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,920.8827041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Spurs49c4,128$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0245736.8%21 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers49c4,022$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,064.042,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Lakers50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0003237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Spurs61c3,974$2,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,424.0952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c0…734dbacked Spurs57c3,694$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,117.7490%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c2d…3749backed Lakers51c3,581$1,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.361457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.