NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06f1ade495397161a80877bf4882dc10dfe6baa918b5d5d9ff290adacb2419d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 51c | 64,033$32,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,577.31 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 37,082$18,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,911.99 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 7,332$3,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,697.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 50c | 7,038$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,518.98 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 51c | 5,750$2,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,817.5 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 51c | 5,488$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,684.09 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Under | 49c | 2,872$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.29 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 2,255$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.07 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 50c | 375$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 53c | 187.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…6344backed Over | 58c | 170.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 42c | 170.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Over | 50c | 119.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…3f01backed Under | 48c | 106.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…1466backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Under | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Under | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 51c | 92.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 46c | 77.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…d048backed Under | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 50c | 57.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…cc33backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Over | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…970ebacked Over | 52c | 21.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…fea4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. LakersLakers won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.