NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfc5283cfff7d1819385c123cd7035395861d80ca132014a8c9565fdaf5920ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 12,293$6,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,280.48 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 9,551$4,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,914.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…e859backed Over | 49c | 2,781$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5af6…5d07backed Over | 49c | 2,328$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…3f01backed Over | 47c | 2,145$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.6 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…e0cfbacked Over | 49c | 2,120$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…9b86backed Under | 51c | 2,062$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 1,823$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.96 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0842…9d35backed Under | 51c | 1,418$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…b2a4backed Under | 51c | 1,376$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 52c | 1,227$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.84 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…2c2ebacked Under | 51c | 952$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…e599backed Under | 51c | 719$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…c5b1backed Under | 51c | 702$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 54c | 523.57$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.73 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 55c | 340.03$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Under | 57c | 185.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 178$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 46c | 169$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 46c | 167.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 55c | 154.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 46c | 104.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 45c | 47.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…bc8abacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…ba33backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…b1e3backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…11c0backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…970ebacked Over | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. LakersLakers won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.