NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5846c1763613d4fa155658f389773bb6d309794966ab1685604a5c5cf764ec6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 46c | 8,625$3,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,630.11 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 7,996$4,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,384.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Over | 47c | 1,319$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 55c | 682$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.1 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 43c | 412.28$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 47c | 349.45$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.61 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 44c | 344.26$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.26 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 265.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 52c | 262.28$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4943…dd33backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 176.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Over | 50c | 162$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…232abacked Under | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8d…4a1cbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa55…4b00backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Over | 52c | 38.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95a7…ecdfbacked Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. LakersLakers won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.