TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Lakers, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,533
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,533 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x220b…147bbacked Lakers46c5,169$2,378 inLost-$2,377.74666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…0320backed Spurs54c5,169$2,791 inWon+$2,377.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc981…81d8backed Lakers46c4,271$1,965 inLost-$1,964.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3659…7654backed Spurs54c4,271$2,306 inWon+$1,964.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef33…7794backed Spurs54c3,806$2,055 inWon+$1,750.76771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+45.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5b3…1663backed Lakers46c3,718$1,710 inLost-$1,710.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20f5…3b1cbacked Lakers46c2,786$1,282 inLost-$1,281.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e9…bec8backed Spurs54c2,698$1,457 inWon+$1,241.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lakers44c743.58$329 inLost-$328.6371052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Lakers47c712.38$335 inLost-$334.8217147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Lakers46c630.43$290 inLost-$2906256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs54c593$323 inWon+$269.8685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Spurs59c508.47$300 inWon+$208.4713153.4%70 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Spurs60c500$300 inWon+$20027547.6%131 W · 144 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf4…d167backed Spurs59c338.98$200 inWon+$138.982050%10 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Spurs52c258.87$135 inWon+$123.822,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs61c218$133 inWon+$85.026,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Spurs53c174.85$93 inWon+$82.182,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers46c137.99$63 inLost-$63.019,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Lakers37c134.92$50 inLost-$49.928843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Spurs63c134.92$85 inWon+$49.9236854.1%199 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09e3…cf81backed Spurs53c100$53 inWon+$4718955%104 W · 85 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f6e…6a74backed Spurs61c49.18$30 inWon+$19.1821651.4%111 W · 105 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Spurs53c25$13 inWon+$11.751,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Spurs56c18$10 inWon+$7.9223651.7%122 W · 114 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.