TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb9b6…630c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 52 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST6352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bucks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,115
Rockets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$690Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$690
Knicks vs. Sunsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$520
Hawks vs. Nuggetsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+75.4%+$430
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,924Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,924
Nuggets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,258.56
Warriors vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$958Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$958.36
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+117.4%+$2,347.38
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$3,975Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$3,975
Magic vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$4,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$4,001.07
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,987Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+61.3%+$2,443.4
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$3,998Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$3,998.4
Clippers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$6,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$6,000
Nuggets vs. Rocketsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$4,108Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+129.1%+$5,302.67
Timberwolves vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+156.4%+$6,256.16
76ers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$4,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$3,999.6
Hawks vs. Spursbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,998Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$3,998.4
Bulls vs. Trail Blazersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,789Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+75.4%+$2,858.04
Knicks vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,941Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$4,940.52
Warriors vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$8,214Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+49.3%+$4,045.8
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11,366Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11,365.62
Warriors vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$3,158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+148.4%+$4,687.14
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$5,614Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+54.4%+$3,055.26
Hawks vs. Sunsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,578Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+92.3%+$1,456.2
Nets vs. Wizardsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$3,959Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+132.6%+$5,248.54
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$5,714Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$1,428.53
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$27,532Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27,532.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,120Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$2,880
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$7,680Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+56.3%+$4,320
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$88.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.