TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,996,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,044,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,996,165 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 697 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Suns53c452,995$239,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239,557.488022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Hawks47c175,000$82,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,7506352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hawks42c150,000$62,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,699.9938248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Hawks61c100,798$61,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,946.1919249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Hawks48c80,768$38,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,999.4525248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Hawks48c53,373$25,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,753.814456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Suns50c45,177$22,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,726.782,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Suns70c37,544$26,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,103.6913248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hawks47c25,000$11,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,249.9766853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Suns49c24,061$11,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,689.169852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Hawks48c23,611$11,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,277.7237557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Suns49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80012334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Hawks29c18,988$5,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,528.7134645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Hawks41c18,703$7,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,985.4923135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hawks49c16,951$8,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,589.71,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Hawks52c15,520$8,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,413.5448046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Hawks48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,8004766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Hawks51c14,997$7,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,348.7796447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Suns61c14,785$8,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,999.3626038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Suns58c14,722$8,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,537.734062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Suns50c11,852$5,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,903.4792753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Hawks48c11,748$5,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,094.2844459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Hawks15c10,847$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,174.621,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Hawks17c10,661$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,848.51,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Suns52c10,000$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,220.0251350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Hawks53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,70020253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Suns53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Hawks47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3002142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x222e…0d53backed Hawks3c10,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,699.992334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+110.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks52c9,979$5,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,807.94,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hawks20c9,939$1,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,945.081,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Hawks28c9,680$2,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,931.219640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770a…984ebacked Suns52c8,016$4,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,168.32850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa099…94febacked Hawks51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,920812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick47cpaid-75.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns50c7,857$3,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,939.32,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8d…a559backed Hawks52c7,637$3,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,665.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd726…2accbacked Suns48c7,629$3,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,661.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Hawks51c7,584$3,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,716.2474748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Hawks52c7,476$3,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,621.0355346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d5…5ae1backed Hawks2c7,389$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,241.34944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+572.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Hawks25c7,047$1,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,264.9281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Suns50c7,040$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,49329037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hawks3c6,896$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,698.82,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dbe…3d0dbacked Hawks52c6,713$3,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,222.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc3a…072bbacked Suns48c6,701$3,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,216.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a1…7975backed Hawks41c6,477$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,811.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f40…7f10backed Hawks52c6,221$3,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,986.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd72a…c49abacked Suns48c6,214$2,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,982.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Hawks50c6,001$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,000.516251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Hawks52c5,745$2,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,763.4666744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Suns51c5,700$2,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.9913743.8%60 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x461d…5d6cbacked Hawks53c5,660$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca5…64e7backed Suns47c5,660$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Hawks2c5,250$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,147.5267911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Hawks50c5,200$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.81,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Suns38c5,188$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.112,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Suns45c5,120$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.441,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Hawks2c5,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90017147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Hawks75c5,000$3,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.273966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Suns55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.971,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Hawks47c4,926$2,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.662,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…07a4backed Suns52c4,808$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3db…0b3cbacked Hawks44c4,749$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.361936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Hawks15c4,500$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,835.6627041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…b365backed Suns47c4,300$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02111149.5%55 W · 56 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50fd…cd30backed Hawks53c4,300$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0212740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hawks53c4,108$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.0847748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Suns50c4,095$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.9862351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf21b…b1ffbacked Hawks48c4,081$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Suns47c4,070$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.5176850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hawks48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,08082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e6…ea33backed Suns63c4,000$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5301346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Hawks52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.9818142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf922…e9c7backed Hawks58c4,000$2,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.392030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-51.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks42c3,966$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.35,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Hawks45c3,931$1,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.0750838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3605…1ae1backed Hawks27c3,930$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,865.2223043%99 W · 131 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Suns49c3,906$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.9841652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hawks58c3,734$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.585344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Suns1c3,639$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.941,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Hawks1c3,210$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.054573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Hawks48c3,125$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62531044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Hawks47c3,120$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.525850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Suns66c3,050$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.83,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Hawks52c3,034$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.26352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ec…6933backed Suns52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5602445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Hawks53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4779…7bcabacked Hawks50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5002661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c59…2848backed Suns52c2,873$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.872846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Suns50c2,512$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.9525945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Suns50c2,495$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.371,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Suns53c2,350$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.59256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Suns7c2,323$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.61,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Hawks48c2,313$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.912951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Suns43c2,281$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.3117153.8%92 W · 79 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Suns50c2,217$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.412,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee2e…f422backed Suns52c2,200$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1444259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Hawks49c2,200$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12243348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Hawks49c2,100$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0718863.6%56 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Suns52c2,095$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.6373649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.