NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Suns: O/U 228.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58c59bebda8aa2384c40a3b9fef51df7fb1d519184ed2225f564c708675fa7ac

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,166
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,446

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,166 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	48c	2,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	51c	1,567$804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803.86	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	47c	1,030$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.9	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Over	47c	1,030$484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.9	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x364e…1996backed Over	52c	574.83$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.92	39	59%23 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over	47c	154.5$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.88	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	47c	103.77$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.77	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7f…f524backed Over	53c	103.77$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.77	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	60cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa844…7d5fbacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	45	66.7%30 W · 15 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Over	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	48c	41.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbb…1594backed Under	52c	35$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	60	45%27 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d86…ac11backed Over	50c	22.52$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.26	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Suns: O/U 228.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event