NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hawks (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x495dc4ec7656b62a4d1363c54f94f608953a5f561c340cb49d21cc8e2d23094f

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Hawks, Suns
Resolved: Nov 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $16,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,518

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,535 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks	49c	3,941$1,912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,029.55	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Suns	50c	3,496$1,748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,748	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Hawks	50c	2,500$1,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,250	164	46.3%76 W · 88 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8265…e0eebacked Suns	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Suns	52c	1,012$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.3	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks	49c	613.93$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.1	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Suns	50c	520$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Hawks	50c	452$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a10…543cbacked Suns	51c	428.38$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.47	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+3.5wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Suns	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e13…732fbacked Suns	51c	344$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.44	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Hawks	44c	315.62$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.75	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns	61c	312$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.54	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0a…9104backed Hawks	45c	302.73$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.5	75	42.7%32 W · 43 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Hawks	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	162	43.8%71 W · 91 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c09…a69fbacked Suns	56c	268.13$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Hawks	51c	254.19$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.19	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Suns	51c	250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Hawks	49c	214$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.04	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Suns	50c	203.31$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.89	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Hawks	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Suns	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Hawks	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Hawks	49c	150$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.5	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Suns	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Suns	48c	128.13$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Suns	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	187	42.8%80 W · 107 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Hawks	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f9d…4ad7backed Hawks	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Suns	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Hawks	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	235	50.2%118 W · 117 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe2…1bb4backed Hawks	46c	80$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3175…5916backed Suns	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-15%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x412c…43b4backed Hawks	52c	71.15$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.15	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns	48c	70.79$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.98	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Suns	48c	67.31$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.31	724	50.7%367 W · 357 L	+13.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Hawks	49c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	1,028	48.5%499 W · 529 L	+27.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Hawks	45c	54$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.7	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns	49c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Hawks	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Hawks	42c	42$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.48	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2a…845bbacked Suns	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94a2…0c1abacked Suns	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb6…3578backed Suns	57c	35.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c9…8174backed Suns	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	51%50 W · 48 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…f4c5backed Suns	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Hawks	50c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Suns	50c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7d…fccebacked Suns	50c	26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-3.3wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-27%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Hawks (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event