NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Suns: O/U 229.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e36b146585bd10e0d032fc6fac23b45bcbee2ac5f65fb1e4389a92d9cfebff6

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,164 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	51c	14,713$7,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,496.4	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Over	50c	6,565$3,305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,259.6	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	50c	4,607$2,285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,321.28	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Over	49c	4,500$2,205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,295	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c51…60bcbacked Under	54c	3,900$2,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,106	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x710a…ed6cbacked Over	46c	3,900$1,794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,106	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Under	50c	3,300$1,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,650	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	50c	2,802$1,401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,401	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Over	44c	2,662$1,184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,477.81	180	47.8%86 W · 94 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Under	54c	1,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Under	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Over	47c	500$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	53c	462.26$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over	50c	333.1$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.55	417	42%175 W · 242 L	-16.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Under	50c	228$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x068f…4594backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	56c	160.35$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.69	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf28…72aabacked Over	55c	155$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.55	133	18.8%25 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under	55c	145.45$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Over	48c	110$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.2	119	51.3%61 W · 58 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Over	42c	99.89$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.94	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Under	51c	98.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.38	135	50.4%68 W · 67 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb0b…e2a3backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.91	101	47.5%48 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	50c	79.8$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.9	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	49c	79.71$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Under	53c	74.77$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…ed59backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf139…1d3bbacked Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6680…5b88backed Over	51c	45.1$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.1	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-6.3wins	-0.30per pick	54cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x9e62…06f9backed Over	47c	42.95$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.95	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd35…c85ebacked Over	48c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.8	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c65…845dbacked Under	54c	20.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Suns: O/U 229.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event