NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82da40aa06e15e3519249bc3ff1385be364943fec17f597d1117e0579ab6465d

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,975 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over	47c	12,345$5,802 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,542.84	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Under	53c	7,360$3,901 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,901.03	524	60.1%315 W · 209 L	+35.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	52c	5,193$2,714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,713.55	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe971…350cbacked Over	43c	3,700$1,591 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,109	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd1…da41backed Under	57c	3,700$2,109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,109	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under	53c	3,000$1,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,590	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Over	48c	2,100$1,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,092	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	53c	594$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.82	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ba…b202backed Over	53c	590$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.3	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fb1…cc29backed Under	47c	590$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.3	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Over	48c	555$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.6	70	55.7%39 W · 31 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Over	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	1,048	41.1%431 W · 617 L	+23.6wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	53c	411.35$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.9	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	49c	368.17$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.73	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	52c	315.1$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.3	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Over	49c	205.1$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.1	245	56.3%138 W · 107 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1be0…dc27backed Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	158	53.8%85 W · 73 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	52c	200$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.5	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3dd…45d3backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Over	52c	195$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	368	54.1%199 W · 169 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Over	48c	160$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.2	141	45.4%64 W · 77 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda0…6d11backed Over	49c	103.06$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.06	49	63.3%31 W · 18 L	+5.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09e3…cf81backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	189	55%104 W · 85 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e28…3e73backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	91	58.2%53 W · 38 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	52c	95.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.16	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Over	53c	95$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.65	133	58.6%78 W · 55 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	52c	89$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.72	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	89$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.72	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a6…9347backed Over	46c	60.41$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.41	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	47c	58$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.97	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	51c	53.06$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.06	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ece…50f0backed Over	48c	50.6$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.31	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…1943backed Over	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Over	47c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.2	158	38.6%61 W · 97 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6f7…f858backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	73	61.6%45 W · 28 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Over	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd185…f969backed Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Over	48c	27.75$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.43	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a18…7a20backed Over	55c	21.82$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.82	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event