TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x02a6…9347

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 52 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT6155.7%34 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+81.8%+$32.73
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+78.6%+$19.64
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 121.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+51.5%+$20.61
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$25
76ers vs. Nets: O/U 229.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 248.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Kings vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Pistons vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+92.3%+$36.92
Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Knicks vs. Magic: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+92.3%+$32.31
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+100%+$25
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors: O/U 237.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+207.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Falcons vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
Commanders vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Spread: Patriots (-7.5)backed Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 3 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+104.9%+$26.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+37%+$12.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,009.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$131.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona vs. Houstonbacked Arizona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.