TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$266,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Yes71c96,799$68,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,094.9785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+55.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed No26c69,444$17,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,904.3219153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No26c22,789$5,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,814.043,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No25c15,254$3,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,743.7814846.6%69 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed No29c14,000$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,989.983050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes75c13,488$10,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,352.231553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked No5c12,147$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.843234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-51.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No29c8,500$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,46516647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…edb3backed Yes75c8,328$6,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,082.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No30c5,899$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.3476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No29c5,258$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.822222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No26c5,185$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.093429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb44e…c2c6backed Yes70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11be…cbabbacked No29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes71c4,563$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.2616652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Yes78c3,500$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.823773%27 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked No14c3,338$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.752213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+287.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked No29c3,103$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.871936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc478…d2e2backed Yes72c2,778$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ba…9ed6backed Yes72c2,778$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec5…1f22backed Yes72c2,083$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No30c2,050$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.337111.3%8 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58012651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No19c1,842$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.272,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70af…26fdbacked No28c1,786$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes71c1,511$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.119053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes72c1,498$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.66451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed No30c1,348$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No16c1,281$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.245143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf341…d026backed No28c1,222$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Yes71c1,007$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.92360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2967…4517backed No29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No28c999.97$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.992035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes71c992.81$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.1419347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No28c893.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No13c841.11$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.343339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+84.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed No28c799.73$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4115024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No25c787.09$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.16543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No29c763.14$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.31580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked No29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed No29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20360%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x511a…9745backed Yes72c694.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.441478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf32…aecbbacked Yes73c688.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.931936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f2…5bb5backed Yes79c683.44$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.524100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed No29c680$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.25444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No18c593.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8851136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes72c534$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.5233945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No29c516.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7123046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes70c500.02$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed No26c479.05$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.374645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbe8…0fedbacked No28c475.41$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3910347.6%49 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4023…2158backed Yes74c472.97$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes72c461.11$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.111968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6882…6f08backed Yes73c412.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.863464.7%22 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes73c408.7$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.71681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked No29c407.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-43%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No28c399.98$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.994141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed No28c388.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.153330.3%10 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes72c361.11$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.11683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+48.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked No28c353.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42ce…d2cbbacked No29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003050%15 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe011…e2aebacked Yes73c331.99$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.095100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No28c300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8411036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32a…b9a4backed Yes71c279.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.86560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yes72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.781973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x989b…8864backed Yes71c275.07$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.77450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…bcf4backed Yes73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.97988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick60cpaid+63.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x162a…0a53backed Yes73c273.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2c…7845backed Yes75c267.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…68aabacked Yes75c266.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee7…12c5backed No29c225$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes71c215$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9341…0fa0backed Yes73c213.34$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf99d…f867backed Yes71c204.1$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.132958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed No29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Yes72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x151f…807dbacked Yes79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes72c199.99$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd410…3a1bbacked No27c199.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.994645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf6…513abacked No26c198.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.882454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes74c188.13$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.131471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No28c180$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c96…f165backed No29c160$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked No28c158.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.79721.6%21 W · 76 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9007…cf89backed Yes72c157.26$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.03771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf31…2931backed Yes71c154.32$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.751376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e80…f694backed No29c151.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes72c141.69$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.672065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.858169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.859951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed No15c139.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213125.8%8 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.893265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.894772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f27…781dbacked Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dd…bf3bbacked Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.