Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern München vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2d0ba937e3ff0db324e71a78a4547873fe95267d0fa904c21ba88398d75d4ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 17c | 3,500$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 2,419$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 17c | 905.88$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…9727backed Yes | 18c | 611.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7b…0179backed Yes | 18c | 565.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3678…d0a5backed Yes | 18c | 350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…8594backed Yes | 18c | 333$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 18c | 284.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…f606backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…1981backed Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 16c | 191.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 163.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 18c | 116.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 16c | 115.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…3422backed Yes | 18c | 112.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…1e75backed Yes | 20c | 100.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5a91backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…05efbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2933…2e06backed Yes | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 17c | 64.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern München vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.