Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a06550e4977a994867f88e238e914fcd3980ab273d9e7685acf68b492e4a55a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f0…2c98backed Yes | 12c | 9,452$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 13c | 5,606$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.78 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…ee7dbacked Yes | 15c | 4,185$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 13c | 3,978$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…b3acbacked Yes | 13c | 3,830$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 13c | 3,050$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 13c | 2,449$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 2,011$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 11c | 1,234$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,003$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 12c | 991$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…39cebacked Yes | 6c | 919.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 13c | 907.62$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 3c | 873.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 12c | 798.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7b…0179backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 11c | 700$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 11c | 557$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…7a07backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…01d9backed Yes | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…d878backed Yes | 13c | 410.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb313…f17bbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…05efbacked Yes | 6c | 390$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…d026backed Yes | 12c | 366.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…6d71backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…fc75backed Yes | 12c | 291.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 10c | 273$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Yes | 13c | 257.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed Yes | 12c | 233.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…cd6fbacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e6…d9e3backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 13c | 223.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…58bcbacked Yes | 13c | 200.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…1335backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…f9c8backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…db41backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…4415backed Yes | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…2194backed Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…42e3backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…e316backed Yes | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…701abacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…98c1backed Yes | 11c | 106.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…801cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5a91backed Yes | 13c | 90.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will Bayern München vs. Borussia Dortmund end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.