Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x478dfc905dd9f44631e7b3a2a76f8aaf5680bc77fd17fe79179664b0ca819a18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,056,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,974,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,056,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 6,149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x867f…3281backed No | 11c | 1,540,601$165,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165,927.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…3413backed No | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x636d…6468backed No | 19c | 596,232$115,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115,214.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…047abacked No | 0c | 538,430$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…c1a9backed No | 1c | 484,098$3,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,545.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…f5b3backed No | 27c | 468,267$128,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128,713.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 0c | 446,735$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.45 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 74c | 438,973$324,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114,793.9 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…0d46backed No | 17c | 427,331$70,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,677.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked No | 16c | 412,051$64,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,983.28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed No | 0c | 403,098$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…10fabacked No | 9c | 400,000$34,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…5b59backed Yes | 65c | 391,264$255,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135,852.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 3c | 382,857$10,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,272.4 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…6781backed No | 24c | 377,040$90,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90,671.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a99…a499backed No | 4c | 375,467$16,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,766.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 1c | 318,998$3,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172.74 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…5ebbbacked Yes | 74c | 314,099$231,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,365.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0d…4dd3backed Yes | 61c | 303,397$183,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119,568.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c232backed No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…8283backed No | 10c | 293,789$28,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,257.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca3…105cbacked No | 0c | 292,665$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…f291backed No | 1c | 288,682$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed No | 11c | 275,017$29,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,104.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…683ebacked No | 5c | 272,000$14,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,259.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…a696backed No | 19c | 260,605$50,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,104.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…8b9dbacked No | 5c | 259,120$12,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,891.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…ecd7backed No | 1c | 256,797$3,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,181.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 0c | 252,000$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.73 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86b…1924backed No | 0c | 249,488$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…27dcbacked No | 20c | 246,277$49,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,265.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed No | 1c | 234,622$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…c1d9backed No | 11c | 230,895$25,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,117.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…ca82backed No | 0c | 219,390$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4763…45d9backed No | 24c | 216,321$51,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,802.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked No | 30c | 211,442$63,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,432.54 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8071…8a24backed No | 0c | 209,186$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 80c | 203,559$161,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,611.63 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed No | 8c | 197,268$16,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,334.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 3c | 197,121$6,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,125.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…7b82backed No | 1c | 187,000$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e01…1453backed No | 16c | 186,955$29,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,061.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…3e14backed Yes | 72c | 183,194$131,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,166.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed No | 0c | 164,650$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked No | 12c | 159,649$19,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,012.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 11c | 157,211$18,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,067.22 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…a72dbacked No | 16c | 154,000$25,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,058.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…9e5cbacked No | 0c | 149,975$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdc…b42cbacked No | 9c | 148,117$13,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,321.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed No | 12c | 147,108$17,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,251.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…df08backed No | 22c | 146,825$31,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,980.3 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefa…c780backed No | 0c | 145,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…396fbacked No | 27c | 141,349$37,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,470 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked No | 31c | 135,205$42,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,406.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed No | 0c | 134,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a5…edb8backed Yes | 67c | 133,724$89,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,165.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked No | 20c | 132,796$26,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,991.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed No | 13c | 131,517$17,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,118.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed No | 8c | 127,929$9,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,836.46 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed No | 25c | 123,708$31,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,534.37 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bb…43dcbacked No | 1c | 122,554$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722d…993ebacked No | 12c | 122,433$14,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,220.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…14f1backed Yes | 77c | 120,622$92,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,752.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed No | 35c | 116,803$40,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,368.74 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0172…84a4backed Yes | 60c | 115,545$68,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,602.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…4e2fbacked No | 9c | 114,274$9,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,996 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e95…1218backed No | 1c | 110,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…de7abacked No | 0c | 108,576$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…d02bbacked Yes | 69c | 105,770$72,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,294.47 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.2wins | +0.59per pick | 34cpaid | +617.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…ab8dbacked No | 8c | 105,464$8,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,484.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed Yes | 70c | 105,400$73,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,758.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed No | 12c | 104,480$12,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,340.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 0c | 104,420$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…ed58backed No | 0c | 102,833$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…2032backed Yes | 61c | 102,767$63,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,576.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…9b1abacked No | 11c | 101,195$11,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,131.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…e9fbbacked No | 0c | 100,341$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed No | 1c | 100,235$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f92…a3c3backed No | 1c | 100,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed No | 0c | 99,748$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4274…7083backed No | 0c | 99,080$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b6…630cbacked Yes | 65c | 95,011$61,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,337.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked No | 40c | 94,063$37,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,564.32 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…9716backed Yes | 66c | 92,730$61,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,564.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed No | 2c | 92,675$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9479…87ffbacked No | 0c | 92,475$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 30c | 91,158$26,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,961.34 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 63c | 90,977$57,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,394.72 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…2f92backed No | 8c | 90,825$7,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,404.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 17c | 90,724$15,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,331.15 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…875abacked No | 3c | 90,334$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376.26 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…291ebacked No | 0c | 89,368$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…0727backed No | 0c | 87,440$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…339fbacked No | 0c | 87,380$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 1c | 87,296$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.65 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 8c | 86,548$7,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,084.97 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…9c61backed No | 13c | 86,490$11,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,617.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 68c | 84,309$57,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,080.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…9f1cbacked No | 0c | 82,684$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?this page
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?No won
- Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.