TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8ee2…bea6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
102
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 51 out of 100; worst Champions League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.86
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$900
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$727Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$726.74
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25,610Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$16,370.18
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$18,142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$5,245.26
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$5,520Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$2,619.03
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$649Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$648.55
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$815Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+140%+$1,141.4
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$76,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$76,880.39
Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$202.77
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,318Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,318.46
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$9,916Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$9,916.39
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$69,371Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+49.8%+$34,529.5
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$57,582Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+58%+$33,394.72
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29,802Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29,801.98
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$6,841Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$6,840.7
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,368Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$1,367.64
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$51,242Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$51,241.7
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$62,911Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$62,910.65
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,693Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$4,693.38
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$18,098Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$18,098.23
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$3,841Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+365.9%+$14,053.54
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$434.34
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17,017Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+50.5%+$8,585.37
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$5,232Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+458.9%+$24,007.4
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3727%10 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$194.12
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,500
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$366.67
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$97.06
Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$81.82
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$116.67
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$127.27
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Côte d'Ivoire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+926%+$4,639.33
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$4,123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$4,123.08
Will Paulo Portas win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$40.62
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$4,299.62
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$3,145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$3,144.84
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$3,237Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$3,236.69
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$802Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$802.28
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,861Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+81.9%+$3,163.67
All 8 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$851Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$851
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$104
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.