Token Launches · resolved market
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fbf3bc718e7d14f86c6bd1152b77f1bb194f26630fce12c4483355b10e7c58b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 4c | 21,242$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.18 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 61c | 16,337$9,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,916.39 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…ba96backed Yes | 6c | 8,218$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.35 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes | 16c | 7,455$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.45 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,836$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.42 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…4767backed Yes | 26c | 4,901$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,659$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.07 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07a3…f596backed Yes | 18c | 4,650$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,613$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.85 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 30c | 4,370$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 42c | 4,310$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.05 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 31c | 3,438$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,383.56 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4966…81debacked Yes | 6c | 3,160$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…20a3backed Yes | 12c | 3,085$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.72 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 2,638$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.33 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,638$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d1…2bb3backed Yes | 29c | 2,392$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 20c | 2,331$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.3 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 9c | 2,196$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,157$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 2,010$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.15 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…a82fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 5c | 1,888$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…9c50backed Yes | 2c | 1,845$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,761$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.53 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 6c | 1,760$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…deb7backed Yes | 1c | 1,668$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,579$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 1,529$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.57 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5202…7975backed Yes | 25c | 1,458$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…e628backed Yes | 53c | 1,448$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.65 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 47c | 1,437$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.89 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,383$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…de88backed Yes | 7c | 1,284$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…d38cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,267$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…c775backed Yes | 12c | 1,246$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…3698backed Yes | 43c | 1,238$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 74c | 1,200$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes | 15c | 1,171$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.09 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 32c | 1,065$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.74 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…17cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,046$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69be…7c2ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…6386backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 49c | 962.49$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.65 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…2a73backed No | 67c | 809.98$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…772cbacked Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 789.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…f5cfbacked No | 49c | 779.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed Yes | 7c | 777.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 768.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 756.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 34c | 749.53$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.94 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…de7ebacked Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…d5cfbacked No | 72c | 696$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.16 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…0f8ebacked No | 58c | 668.93$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 64c | 655.37$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.09 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…54babacked Yes | 17c | 654.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 17c | 646.71$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…ce7bbacked Yes | 27c | 643.59$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…9e1cbacked No | 64c | 636.44$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 610.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 12c | 570.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 7c | 541.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…4a52backed Yes | 13c | 525.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.71 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked No | 64c | 519.76$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked No | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d80…ee14backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…70a8backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…b8f1backed No | 34c | 496.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe716…1450backed Yes | 26c | 489.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…23e6backed Yes | 10c | 478.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed Yes | 2c | 455.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…8661backed Yes | 35c | 400.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed No | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2121…5f82backed Yes | 39c | 400$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…6604backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…1c42backed Yes | 7c | 398.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…f904backed Yes | 13c | 392.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…de37backed Yes | 41c | 367.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 68c | 362.68$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.32 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…edf7backed No | 75c | 355$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 16c | 348.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9f9cbacked Yes | 13c | 345.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc044…f2cfbacked Yes | 36c | 335.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…365ebacked Yes | 9c | 332.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked Yes | 22c | 330.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 10c | 325.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…c1ecbacked No | 30c | 323.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf75a…ee78backed No | 57c | 319.58$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…5659backed No | 57c | 317.1$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dc…03f9backed No | 56c | 313.69$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645d…4da8backed No | 58c | 312.87$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe9…98c6backed Yes | 32c | 310$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Aztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.