Token Launches · resolved market
Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd191a3c0525338543c11ebb123695ebd30c0b6348c92f096bdcfd333f66bd530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 68c | 12,710$8,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,029.52 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…c5a9backed No | 2c | 8,450$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…fcb6backed No | 3c | 7,901$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked No | 25c | 7,775$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…deb7backed No | 4c | 6,636$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.83 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 20c | 5,864$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.2 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6b…fee6backed No | 28c | 5,100$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…729abacked No | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a3…f596backed No | 19c | 4,879$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 4,153$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…4514backed Yes | 61c | 3,243$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 65c | 3,130$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.13 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 40c | 3,102$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.74 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9763…9eafbacked No | 18c | 3,038$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…6640backed Yes | 70c | 2,730$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…8548backed No | 13c | 2,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 66c | 2,237$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.88 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 2,234$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…d845backed Yes | 71c | 2,191$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.57 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 2,162$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.17 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 2,060$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…d453backed No | 1c | 1,989$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 19c | 1,914$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.66 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc22b…d318backed No | 33c | 1,815$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 56c | 1,800$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 58c | 1,796$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.09 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed No | 39c | 1,747$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.32 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked No | 17c | 1,743$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…9c50backed No | 1c | 1,702$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed No | 17c | 1,700$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 20c | 1,662$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.32 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed No | 18c | 1,602$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5afc…b3c9backed No | 39c | 1,556$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 26c | 1,510$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 16c | 1,500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed Yes | 68c | 1,466$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b44…ec4ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,459$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked No | 12c | 1,363$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7383…bd0bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,312$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 4c | 1,310$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 3c | 1,300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a2…b175backed No | 31c | 1,292$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 73c | 1,278$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.16 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 4c | 1,257$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 71c | 1,201$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.73 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…3f04backed No | 36c | 1,166$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed No | 4c | 1,154$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes | 66c | 1,103$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.85 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 17c | 1,100$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 31c | 1,097$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.86 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 8c | 1,096$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 1,081$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 29c | 1,050$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,046$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 2c | 1,022$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked No | 16c | 1,017$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…8661backed No | 20c | 1,003$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked No | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 16c | 1,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…be8cbacked No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…5558backed No | 3c | 999$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…e1d4backed Yes | 57c | 987.99$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.36 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69be…7c2ebacked No | 11c | 914.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 9c | 879.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 62c | 861.74$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.58 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…2d6bbacked No | 18c | 846.46$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e1…c852backed Yes | 62c | 839.91$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.66 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 800.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…4f37backed No | 47c | 778.07$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed No | 14c | 747.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed No | 28c | 740$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5185…645fbacked No | 38c | 710$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…eee9backed No | 22c | 701.29$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked No | 19c | 695.98$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 38c | 689.98$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.19 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 18c | 685.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…8c82backed No | 22c | 647.26$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed No | 40c | 623.65$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.46 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…ee9cbacked No | 31c | 618.32$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x673a…60f9backed No | 40c | 609.92$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…7329backed No | 19c | 589.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 21c | 542.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 7c | 541.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…82afbacked No | 23c | 530$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 37c | 519.73$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.3 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…9991backed No | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…40d7backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a9…d60cbacked No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…8a9dbacked No | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe89d…151dbacked No | 22c | 452.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9378…2bf9backed No | 9c | 440$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…a0efbacked No | 17c | 436.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 44c | 435.56$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.29 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?this page
- Aztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.