Token Launches · resolved market
Aztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c3fb1ba1baa57f69518d30b9f03a36337496b82cffd7fdf1a39f226dd337b78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…f0abbacked Yes | 4c | 7,362$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…3818backed Yes | 1c | 3,070$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,426$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,098$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,087$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…8828backed Yes | 16c | 1,835$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…77d7backed Yes | 2c | 977.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 5c | 924.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9f9cbacked Yes | 5c | 862.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 6c | 766.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 677.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 10c | 509$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 501.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 481.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 480$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…becebacked Yes | 12c | 404.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 15c | 334.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…de1dbacked Yes | 15c | 302.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…6da0backed Yes | 7c | 287.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 10c | 269$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 7c | 246.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 195$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 193.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…c71fbacked Yes | 26c | 176.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 11c | 166$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 10c | 161$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc7…a728backed Yes | 11c | 140.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…787ebacked Yes | 12c | 128.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 13c | 120.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 11c | 119$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 11c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…cb5cbacked No | 70c | 98.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 11c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 73c | 44.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…73d3backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 73c | 24.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…0613backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?this page
- Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.