TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7f46…01b1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
190
Categories scored
31
Categories below 50
19

Best Category: IPO, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 55 out of 100; worst Stocks at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT3240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.28
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$276.52
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$124.32
Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+400%+$289.6
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.44
Will Retirement Plan win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will Overtime with Bill Maher win Best Short-Form Program at the 37th PGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$527.46
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+51.5%+$126.82
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25.25
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$110.35
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+25%+$74.6
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+900%+$189
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$32.16
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$64.48
Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$16.56
Will Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$128.34
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$11.18
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$106.93
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$146.16
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$54.32
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+66.7%+$92
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$160.32
Will "Priscilla" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$72.6
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$107.38
Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$457.2
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$57.04
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$31.5
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.28
Will Darko Rajakovic win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.45
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.88
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$232.98
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.96
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+249.3%+$339
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.5
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$536Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+89.4%+$479.58
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.36
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$105.12
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+218.7%+$330.07
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.92
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$53.04
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$50.5
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+98.1%+$134.21
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.32
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.71
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+203%+$129.98
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.54
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$37.25
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.7
Will the Sacramento Kings win more than 32.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$39.82
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$40.05
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT2544%11 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.56
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$27.26
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.52
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$288.09
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.4
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$548Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$154.66
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+719.7%+$629.53
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+203%+$733.65
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+270.4%+$534.36
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$272.32
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125.82
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$121.04
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$242.01
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+92.3%+$37.44
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+130.7%+$444.2
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.95
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$228.37
Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.13
Will the US strike Syria next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+35.1%+$37.18
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+163.2%+$189.1
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$129.21
Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.36
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.95
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50.16
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+44.9%+$8.06
All 25 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$605.2
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.43
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$788Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$594.26
Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$166.2
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+28.2%+$97.46
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+426.3%+$659.34
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$136.88
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+57.9%+$207.99
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$93.06
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$18.56
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$153.23
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$220.52
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+53.8%+$201.6
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.82
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+53.8%+$35
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$45.55
Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$27.46
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$42.32
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$58.74
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$51.15
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.95
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.44
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$70.98
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.88
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$324.52
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$183.3
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+426.3%+$490.86
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15.12
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$145.13
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.87
GPT ads by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$86.76
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+37%+$49.95
Will Comcast acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14.88
All 17 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+31%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+189.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Blackburn Beavers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.29
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)backed Southern Illinois Salukis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$133.63
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. North Carolina Central Eaglesbacked Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.43
Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Ramsbacked Colorado State Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$46.82
All 4 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+102.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+204.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+112.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+163.2%+$399.9
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+61.3%+$232.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South Africa win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$443.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+95.3%+$186.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+33.3%+$20.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$18.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$26.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$51.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$203.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.