AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f521e83894880ea9b30ad036fae461110058496eb29d1a28b9eada86df56d1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea01…c386backed No | 0c | 17,849$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…773bbacked No | 0c | 15,932$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 1c | 10,055$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 4,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…ec98backed Yes | 5c | 3,939$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.89per pick | 12cpaid | +1,177.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 49c | 3,046$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.85 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,758$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.18 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 72c | 2,462$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 32c | 2,128$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed No | 71c | 1,799$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 29c | 1,731$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…22f3backed Yes | 13c | 1,722$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +572.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 31c | 1,677$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +109%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed Yes | 19c | 1,437$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.97 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,401$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 32c | 1,390$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.2 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 67c | 1,380$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 14c | 1,355$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.39 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 68c | 1,282$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 33c | 1,258$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 30c | 1,207$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 77c | 1,197$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed Yes | 27c | 1,188$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 27c | 1,176$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 67c | 1,138$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 18c | 1,128$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 72c | 1,126$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 73c | 1,114$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 23c | 1,086$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked No | 69c | 1,035$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed Yes | 23c | 1,022$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 28c | 1,010$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 70c | 1,000$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.03 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…910abacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 33c | 978$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 20c | 974$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 22c | 873$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.94 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 9c | 850$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 32c | 828$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 70c | 802$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 72c | 794$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 32c | 785$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 20c | 784$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes | 32c | 752$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 28c | 747$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed No | 72c | 736$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked No | 68c | 732$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 72c | 728$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 68c | 726$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 73c | 711$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed No | 73c | 703$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed No | 68c | 700$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 19c | 699$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 72c | 685$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 667.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.44 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 32c | 664$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 14c | 654$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.19 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 67c | 654$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 73c | 648$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 30c | 637.61$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.28 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 19c | 634$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 80c | 628.17$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 33c | 627$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…1855backed Yes | 16c | 626.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked No | 79c | 615$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 33c | 614$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 77c | 611$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 19c | 594$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +216%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 73c | 585$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.05 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 67c | 585$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 32c | 585$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 68c | 583$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 72c | 577$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 79c | 574$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.46 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 27c | 565$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 27c | 565$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 80c | 565$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 30c | 559$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 78c | 553$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 68c | 550$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 13c | 549$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed Yes | 32c | 548$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.18 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 67c | 547$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.49 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 68c | 545$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 543.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 67c | 533$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 71c | 529$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed No | 68c | 523$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…6779backed Yes | 15c | 513.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.26 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 72c | 496$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked No | 68c | 489$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 77c | 479$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.83 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 20c | 474.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 13c | 472$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed No | 67c | 461$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed No | 67c | 460$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 20c | 446$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.