TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc7e4…b332

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
74
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.37
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$131.69
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.04
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.94
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$7.13
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$417.2
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$525.78
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$72.98
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$258.66
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.08
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.71
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$200.9
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$391Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+192.6%+$752.43
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+371.7%+$354.6
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$318.78
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.51
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$45.88
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.56
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+37%+$51.57
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$306.68
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$385.81
All 21 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$29.82
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.92
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$295.68
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$93.66
Will John Cornyn come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20.7
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$96.32
Will Fredrick Love win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+104.1%+$143.31
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$68.75
Will Mills flip Platner for Maine Dem Senate Primary Winner by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$123.24
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.28
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.46
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$271.32
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$398.75
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.6
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+35.1%+$61.88
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+112.8%+$179.14
Will "The Grinch" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$138.57
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+132.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Metropolitan Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$13.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$118.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$51.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$242.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.