Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cc27f57987618e93038800681456348e48fe0c384b2e57d0f54453ae499c096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 2c | 9,521$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,624$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Yes | 8c | 6,624$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 19c | 6,215$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.29 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 35c | 5,918$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 64c | 3,906$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.16 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,751$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef0…677abacked Yes | 1c | 3,679$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes | 18c | 3,064$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 19c | 2,856$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.75 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 2,501$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 2c | 2,035$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 77c | 1,890$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.64 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,700$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,326$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…0e02backed Yes | 2c | 1,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…a7fabacked Yes | 1c | 991.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed Yes | 15c | 920$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 13c | 897$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 12c | 882$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 870.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 15c | 867$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 830.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 14c | 826$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 15c | 821$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes | 14c | 783$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 746.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 723$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +140%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 16c | 696$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 12c | 675$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes | 15c | 606$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 15c | 601$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 574.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 76c | 568$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 79c | 566.44$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 15c | 462$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 15c | 441$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 438.36$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 14c | 434$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 16c | 390$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 15c | 369$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 12c | 363$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes | 12c | 362$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 14c | 338$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 21c | 323.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 15c | 308$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…de26backed No | 77c | 290.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 270.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 12c | 261$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 12c | 258$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 25c | 250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 218.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +566.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 12c | 196$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 15c | 192$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 15c | 183$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 7c | 177.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 12c | 149$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed No | 65c | 148.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 147.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 124.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…64f1backed Yes | 23c | 120.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 79c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 15c | 117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 24c | 111.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6f…99edbacked Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 31c | 97.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 12c | 84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 66.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 38.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.