TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1ea6…32d9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
132
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
18

Best Category: Stocks, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.46
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+145.5%+$378.7
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.2
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$102.2
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.28
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.56
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.25
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+92.3%+$21.12
Will Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$32.22
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.2%+$39.82
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$117.2
Will Come See Me in the Good Light be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+185.7%+$140.4
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+350.9%+$1,231.95
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+106.4%+$79.92
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$65.18
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$125.84
Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$28.75
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$524.79
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.54
Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$73.14
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$39.56
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$127.5
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$26.22
Will Hamnet win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$312.8
Will One Battle After Another win Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$97.35
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.28
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.3
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$341.62
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+100.8%+$227.9
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.18
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.46
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$91.26
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$9
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$948Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$948.07
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.82
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$433Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$706.18
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$63.15
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.28
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.4
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.32
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.28
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.31
Will the Memphis Grizzlies make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$607Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$197.91
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$258.5
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$24.11
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$12
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.3
Will the Orlando Magic win more than 51.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.8
Will the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$12.1
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+135.8%+$243.65
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.58
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$10.71
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100.36
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$150.48
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 5 be between 60 and 70?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$130.18
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$61.18
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$143.13
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$94.64
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$11.1
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+300%+$264
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$124.28
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+270.4%+$94.17
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.62
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$588Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$273.46
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$61.88
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.84
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$96.14
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$352.89
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$197.93
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+112.8%+$62.54
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick15cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$209.56
Ukraine strike in Russia on 26 November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$26.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?backed Odd · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$474.18
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$226.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+132.6%+$53.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$238.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Ghawar Field by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$14.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leon Thomas win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$35.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)backed Evansville Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
HCL Million Dollar Marathon: Alan Keating VPIP above 70%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$40.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$117.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.