Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fde12eafbf252ac396313ab4eb9d95f23786454e2dc95a1a55f2e66a324b0ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 55c | 2,289$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 55c | 1,816$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 42c | 1,682$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 45c | 1,240$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 58c | 1,056$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 58c | 951$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 45c | 922$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 45c | 894$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 45c | 762$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 45c | 747$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed No | 55c | 682$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 45c | 682$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa27…d1d3backed Yes | 45c | 668$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed No | 55c | 641$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 55c | 607$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.36 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 58c | 499$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked No | 42c | 499$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 40c | 466.2$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.73 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 42c | 423$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 28c | 331.02$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.36 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 71c | 293.93$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 30c | 200$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 163.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 39c | 149.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 51c | 134.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed Yes | 9c | 133.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 28c | 110.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes | 72c | 103$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 94.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2b8ebacked Yes | 71c | 93.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…5c07backed Yes | 70c | 71.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 60c | 70.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 66.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 20c | 65.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Yes | 26c | 63.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed No | 65c | 54.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918f…907cbacked Yes | 37c | 51.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…20b2backed No | 42c | 46.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fa…fb13backed No | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…b204backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…4dd2backed No | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 64c | 38.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 34c | 38.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 37.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…ec11backed Yes | 74c | 36.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3632…7e1ebacked Yes | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…f3e9backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c74ebacked Yes | 62c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…352abacked Yes | 66c | 30.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f3…acc2backed No | 40c | 29.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1338…6056backed Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…a596backed Yes | 74c | 26.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…1c0fbacked Yes | 46c | 24.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 61c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 61c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a7…4e43backed Yes | 69c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…f6ecbacked Yes | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…b349backed Yes | 73c | 15.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 74c | 15.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…26a7backed Yes | 70c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?this page
- Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?Yes won
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in April?No won
- Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.