TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xca71…610b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
115
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Weather, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 61 out of 100; worst NFL at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Weather — the 108 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$507Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+43%+$217.95
Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+95.8%+$40.14
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+60.4%+$8.06
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.69
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+64.5%+$212.14
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+66.3%+$62.95
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+267.9%+$356.79
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.85
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+171.8%+$593.2
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.55
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+117.5%+$197.1
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+43%+$82.98
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.04
Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.8%+$107.22
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.73
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on April 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.15
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+336.3%+$39.97
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.52
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$7.73
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.32
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$11.34
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.63
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.74
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$60.93
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$185.71
Showing 25 of 108 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
The Masters 2026: Hole in One?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$18.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sebastian Ofner vs Alex Michelsenbacked Sebastian Ofner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$404.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+40.8%+$29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kingsbacked Chennai Super Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,733Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$488.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Merrimack College Warriors vs. Vermont Catamounts: O/U 137.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$324.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Packers (-3.5)backed Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$56.38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.