Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22a25bc0b4d53b9cc71d209eab34f422fe9d7313c075df1da9779aebb3042b16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 2c | 7,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…9cd6backed No | 0c | 5,303$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,768$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.83 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 28c | 817.02$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.28 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 39c | 696.19$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.23 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 480.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 80c | 393.58$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.49 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 328.91$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 276.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.43 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 267.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.08 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…4aeabacked Yes | 8c | 236.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 80c | 233.36$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.32 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 230.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.47 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 215.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.02 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 6c | 201.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.33 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 196.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 174.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 37c | 133.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 22c | 112.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 69c | 93.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 78.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 36c | 75.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 74.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 30c | 73.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 68c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 68c | 72.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 68.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 61c | 61.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 49c | 60.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 58.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc927…efd8backed Yes | 29c | 53.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 27c | 53.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…d247backed No | 60c | 49.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 48.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 70c | 48.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…bf09backed Yes | 39c | 48.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 30c | 45.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 60c | 41.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 39c | 40.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 62c | 38.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…6b8ebacked Yes | 28c | 36.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 79c | 35.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 74c | 35.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 30.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 72c | 30.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 28.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 28.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 43c | 28.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…b312backed No | 66c | 27.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 27.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 74c | 23.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 49c | 21.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…99e6backed No | 62c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 69c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 18.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…6249backed No | 64c | 17.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 13.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.