Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a5c471ad53d7673ffa0bc02093b672951984d0accd87990adff6c3dc2491254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 15c | 1,190$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.73 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 73c | 1,006$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.1 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 553.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 420.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 416.64$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 30c | 398.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 28c | 388.42$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 77c | 324.6$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 296.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 277.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 275.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 204.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 9c | 203.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 28c | 201.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 6c | 193.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 40c | 187.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdadc…f9d8backed Yes | 7c | 183.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 46c | 170.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 68c | 167.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 146.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 19c | 142.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 11c | 131.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 43c | 117.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 19c | 108.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 39c | 95.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 93.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…86d9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 34c | 79.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 78.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 64.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 58c | 62.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 61.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 78c | 59.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes | 22c | 59.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 76c | 55.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 60c | 54.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 68c | 47.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…9de5backed Yes | 39c | 43.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…22a6backed Yes | 44c | 42.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 63c | 41.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 40.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b20…df33backed Yes | 60c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 69c | 22.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 18.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.