Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x268e055c9985d344dddaea94ba1b50a3ac2b7eeff92c723a33176b349282c3b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 55c | 443.2$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked No | 37c | 399.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0597…5265backed Yes | 66c | 391.81$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 46c | 250.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 57c | 234.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 35c | 206.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 48c | 186.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 77c | 171.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 55c | 170.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 8c | 168.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 63c | 166.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 61c | 164.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5053…50f0backed Yes | 65c | 153.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 143.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…54c7backed Yes | 67c | 137.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 75c | 133.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 61c | 121.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked No | 17c | 115.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…e5b5backed No | 38c | 111.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 110.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 35c | 107.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 23c | 83.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…608ebacked No | 41c | 83.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…17c9backed Yes | 61c | 81.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 48c | 74.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…5ac4backed No | 29c | 74.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 69c | 66.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 65.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 47c | 61.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 45c | 54.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 44c | 52.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…f44bbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 49.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 60c | 48.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…fd1ebacked No | 43c | 43.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 57c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 78c | 37.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9988…b28ebacked Yes | 52c | 34.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 36c | 32.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 43c | 32.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892c…2605backed No | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 28.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1012…42f1backed No | 50c | 27.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…9c9dbacked Yes | 58c | 25.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…a898backed No | 46c | 25.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab55…6534backed Yes | 67c | 23.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…64e7backed Yes | 73c | 23.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…b2e2backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 69c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…066ebacked Yes | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 17.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…47cdbacked Yes | 65c | 16.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1777…4e65backed Yes | 70c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 41°F or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.