Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f932ac97f42b7afafa71595b8a31019f916f4a7679f78aa396b0e3cdd2cf56b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd90f…7551backed Yes | 4c | 1,006$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 385.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 49c | 366.21$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 289.5$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 238.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 230.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 193.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 185.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 42c | 168.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 80c | 155.78$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 37c | 153.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 61c | 145.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 29c | 133.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 62c | 129.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 32c | 119.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 24c | 106.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 95.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 89.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 19c | 85.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 84.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 29c | 80.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…6b8ebacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 74.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 73.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Yes | 32c | 71.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 70c | 67.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 66.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 45c | 63.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 67c | 59.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 58.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 30c | 55.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 55.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 23c | 55.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 21c | 52.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 72c | 51.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 55c | 51.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 39c | 47.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 23c | 44.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 74c | 43.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 24c | 43.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 48c | 42.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 40.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 31c | 39.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 36.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 34c | 32.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 79c | 29.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 27.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 72c | 25.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbf…1b94backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed No | 78c | 23.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 74c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…6a2fbacked No | 75c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 80c | 15.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 76c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1542…ee9dbacked No | 74c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.