Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86df7a5c523dcd1cd264651a41707581a3a3feb767a9ff1416cf9e5e4323ccf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,946$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.4 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 737.54$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 46c | 452.72$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.88 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 437.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 46c | 423.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.43 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…7551backed No | 5c | 400.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 61c | 357.38$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.53 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 294$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 75c | 250.81$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.18 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 4c | 246.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.23 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 245.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 79c | 222.57$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 16c | 201.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…f11bbacked No | 66c | 189.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 157.59$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 141.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 137.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 134.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 66c | 131.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 66c | 109.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 61c | 102.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 98.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 85.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 84.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 55c | 69.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 70c | 69.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 33c | 60.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 43.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 50c | 42.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 74c | 37.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 54c | 34.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 72c | 30.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…7e96backed Yes | 44c | 30.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed Yes | 51c | 22.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 47c | 21.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…c178backed Yes | 75c | 18.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Yes | 69c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b29…de2bbacked Yes | 75c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.