TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1c0f…99d0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
894
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst IPO at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT86420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 864 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.43
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.01
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.04
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.12
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.1
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.1
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$643Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$643.49
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.1
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.62
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.81
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$83.44
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.76
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.13
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.89
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.27
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+115.7%+$36.25
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+89.5%+$15.96
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.27
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,509Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,509.49
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.34
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.01
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$107.07
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+58.1%+$157.8
Showing 25 of 864 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.22
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.1
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$30.39
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$132.77
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$213.4
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.63
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.37
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.68
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$12.38
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+70.9%+$80.39
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.4
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+85.7%+$26.76
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+99.7%+$25.55
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.60per pick15cpaid+479%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick4cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,233.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+3,233.3%+$1,164
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SOFR hit 3.76% (High) between April 1 and April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+900%+$1,562.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.47
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.