Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c7d6cf2278ee2cb2f6b892e7c9be3744c2432c43dd7d076bc50c73fb057fa6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,726$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 964.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 16c | 669.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 656.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 10c | 607.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 600.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 12c | 500.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 14c | 500$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 463.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 8c | 428.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 10c | 387.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 13c | 371.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 370.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 5c | 337.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 18c | 311.78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 15c | 259.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 12c | 208.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 207.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 5c | 200.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 185.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 179.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 21c | 179.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 169.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 16c | 164.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 149.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 14c | 148.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 79c | 147.94$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 13c | 138$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 9c | 122.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 109$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 80c | 106$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 14c | 104.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…b9d7backed Yes | 12c | 95.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 21c | 90.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 20c | 79.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 73.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 63.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 20c | 59.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 32c | 37.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.