Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21d1d95009adce17db8f4a3d752ad8460d558b9094a2ace0b183dbcc54937249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 1,737$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 916.6$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 850.71$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 50c | 817.58$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.33 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed No | 38c | 775$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.26 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 749.61$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 747.64$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 57c | 699.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.45 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 627.82$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 52c | 481.26$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.26 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 434.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 67c | 426.31$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.62 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 66c | 361.62$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.78 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 57c | 349.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.83 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 297$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 44c | 284.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 68c | 270.84$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 9c | 255.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 35c | 253.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 252.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 237.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed Yes | 61c | 229.17$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 55c | 218.09$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.53 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 43c | 199.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 14c | 197.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 175.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 48c | 173.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 156.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 25c | 155.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 42c | 146.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 50c | 137.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 60c | 134.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 64c | 128$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 45c | 124.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 124$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 56c | 123.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 119.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 20c | 112.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 109.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 51c | 109.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 32c | 108.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 43c | 108.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 108.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 53c | 104.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 56c | 103.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…002abacked No | 38c | 102.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 97.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes | 60c | 92.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 26c | 91.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed No | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 63c | 85.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 84.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 81.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 66c | 81.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 42c | 79.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 49c | 79.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…8223backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 53c | 69.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 21c | 65.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 62.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 46c | 60.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 57.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…b4c2backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…9633backed No | 59c | 56.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 54.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 63c | 53.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 30c | 52.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 52.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 52c | 45.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 44.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 55c | 42.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 32c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 72c | 41.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 40.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…52d3backed Yes | 76c | 39.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…0c8bbacked Yes | 72c | 38.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 68c | 38.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 38c | 37.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.