TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c2,177$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.7410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes29c1,765$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.4730919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No69c1,221$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.257251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes30c992.03$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.821,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes22c892$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.369425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes36c609.46$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8915527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No67c474.19$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.334,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No72c417.04$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.662,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No71c387.07$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.9147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes5c310.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5116733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes17c270.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.643,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes31c251$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8425135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No71c223.42$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.036750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No70c221.9$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0759021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c219$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.724,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes23c216.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No73c196.75$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0376059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes25c194$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c181.39$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.264,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes33c180.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9520133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No74c179.14$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c176.07$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.083,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c173.7$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.15,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed No73c154.26$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.176660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No75c152.26$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.173,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes26c148.64$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3625332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No72c141.89$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.396,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c139.46$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfddd…23debacked No74c135.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.832075%15 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb252…add8backed No74c135.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.212763%17 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes31c127$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.12,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No75c114.73$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.854,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes27c112.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.551,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe547…271dbacked Yes21c111.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.552714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes27c111.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9211525.2%29 W · 86 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes25c104.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes20c101.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No77c100.68$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.984,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b31…8ee2backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273366.7%22 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x839e…8a61backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.69159.3%54 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No73c99.96$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.923,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd1…a583backed No72c97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.382462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes30c95.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1727047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes31c95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4516453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes26c89.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.568139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13f3…0becbacked No72c83.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No73c79.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.41,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd81…c215backed Yes15c75.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.311233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-48.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes26c74.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.236835.3%24 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes28c74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7212629.4%37 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c72.68$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes18c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes24c68.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.651,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes28c65.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.514,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c64.39$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.399,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes26c61.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No69c60.5$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8423666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4946452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.613637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.84632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No72c59.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.985,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No72c58.39$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.393,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce5…6233backed Yes22c56.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5413559.3%80 W · 55 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes23c56.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.923218.8%6 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes35c55.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.593432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes33c52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.534533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.515534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No73c49.96$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.542,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No79c49.8$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.651,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No74c49.61$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.064,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes31c48.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a2…9633backed No67c48.22$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.911963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked Yes24c47.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.628035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No80c47.01$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.432,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb50b…7a3ebacked Yes22c45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.061450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No76c44.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.572,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No69c44.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7798160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No66c43.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.711,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes27c40.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2219737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.922945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes34c39.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.591,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes30c39.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No72c38.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.853,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No73c37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.812,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabff…6b73backed Yes30c35.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.775851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No72c35.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes30c34.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4989557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No74c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No74c32.43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4468867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.444,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No78c29.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.615176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.