Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82c840ad115f8d483b9ccf7b35645c12cff3b533f6e73426d2d6de5c6299d0de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 2,177$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,765$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.47 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 69c | 1,221$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.25 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 30c | 992.03$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.82 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 22c | 892$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.36 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 36c | 609.46$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.89 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 474.19$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 417.04$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 71c | 387.07$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 5c | 310.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 270.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 31c | 251$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 71c | 223.42$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 70c | 221.9$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 219$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes | 23c | 216.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 196.75$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 25c | 194$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 181.39$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 33c | 180.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 74c | 179.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 176.07$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 173.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 73c | 154.26$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 152.26$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 26c | 148.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 141.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 139.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 74c | 135.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 74c | 135.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 127$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 114.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 112.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 21c | 111.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 27c | 111.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 25c | 104.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 20c | 101.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 100.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 99.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 30c | 95.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked Yes | 31c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 26c | 89.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked No | 72c | 83.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 79.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…c215backed Yes | 15c | 75.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 26c | 74.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 72.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 68.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 65.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 26c | 61.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 69c | 60.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 59.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 58.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 22c | 56.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 23c | 56.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 35c | 55.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 49.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 49.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 49.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 48.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…9633backed No | 67c | 48.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 24c | 47.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 47.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…7a3ebacked Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 44.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 44.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 43.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 27c | 40.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 34c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 30c | 39.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 38.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 30c | 35.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 35.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 30c | 34.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.