TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes34c1,119$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.4810043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes48c710.34$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.819020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No64c483.56$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.0413348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No58c437.96$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.6344138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No66c417.46$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.7818445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes38c394.2$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5812055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes39c360.26$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.411540%6 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c351.98$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.7223044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No56c305$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1212055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c283.3$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.2735258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c282.99$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2540648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No43c280.38$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2423551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes23c265.7$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.598025%20 W · 60 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed Yes43c242.75$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.343351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No63c239.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7421854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bdd…0872backed Yes38c222.94$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.943026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No7c182.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1514521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c168.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0412816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c163$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5814454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No52c156.35$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.085464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed Yes63c146.82$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2214100%14 W · 0 L+6.1wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+108.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c140.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3934354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes43c138.84$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.82626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes42c115$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.645646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No61c115$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.372347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b6…6c51backed Yes37c113.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No78c111.29$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0213357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c110.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.461,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes39c102.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.325749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes37c101.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7646330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec47…0c22backed Yes10c100.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.51825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+53.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6513646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.511060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+58.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No48c97.31$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.594852.1%25 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes38c93.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.028736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes24c92.05$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7922111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes41c90.32$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2912040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes15c90$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.56224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes22c86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1810733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No53c85.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.074564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes14c79.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.717517.3%13 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No65c77.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503171%22 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes36c69.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7232354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3114…eaaabacked Yes38c67.39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.781225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes41c67.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.572969%20 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c65.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3339952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes27c65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.451181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick45cpaid+88.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No74c60.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.32751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb546…c186backed Yes34c59.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes19c58.76$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.784139%16 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes42c57.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.438236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes42c56.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.871145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes36c54.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.823551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes37c53.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.612238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes36c52.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.78739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c52.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.537030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes38c51.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes41c51.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.391442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a39…cf39backed Yes39c51.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3010030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3011045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305066%33 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2118…27a3backed Yes41c49.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes43c49.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.337248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes40c49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.621145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No44c45.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.232161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No61c45.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6614351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes36c45.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.061338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes35c45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.32729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No47c41.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2f…4ddebacked No62c40.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.723459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes41c39.05$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0518638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes40c39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.45131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x884c…2ee9backed Yes38c37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No78c36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.216566.2%43 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed No57c35.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9518…6c1ebacked No74c33.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251070%7 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20c0…22b4backed Yes38c33.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes42c32.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2214827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c32.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No62c32.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No63c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.164374.4%32 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No61c31.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3415766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No64c31.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No66c30.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.888959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes44c29.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.745062%31 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No55c29.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2618035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No61c27.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6313155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes38c26.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.434753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes40c25.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.131018.9%9 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid+115.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfeb…a172backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4612…d575backed No64c24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.241668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed No64c23.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No72c23.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7944428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.