TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd24b…187dbacked No28c399.96$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.984953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes13c357.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4412816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c353.31$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2623044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No7c352.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.544216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes22c308.77$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.432748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No68c297.22$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0512055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c283.3$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c260.51$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes28c253.48$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.839231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes5c246.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1314521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes8c233.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4426632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c223.94$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.912640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No18c204.07$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.343551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes23c191.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.981540%6 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes24c191.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3646330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No23c190$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.5740648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes50c182.07$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3313357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No39c169.85$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0323551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes23c168.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.126126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes23c166.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.68736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c162.81$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No75c160$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4013268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes38c151.3$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.541145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.221854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c140.75$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes29c129.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4812040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c124.35$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.719160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes35c117.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.052626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes35c114.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.295646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No77c111.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.765072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No62c109.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.945464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes22c108.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2615036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes34c107.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.14540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes23c97.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes65c92.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c88.17$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.681,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes28c85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No54c83.22$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.124564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c82.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes57c80.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.033366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No13c77.49$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.117517.3%13 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No42c73.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.442152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5174…8a39backed Yes34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f89…8819backed No71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No71c70.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.424759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No77c70.21$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.338743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed Yes38c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.62755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes22c69.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.258739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3114…eaaabacked Yes24c67.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.171225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes37c67.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes55c66.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.592759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.25843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c58.7$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.732639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes58c57.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2316738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb546…c186backed Yes28c53.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.151145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c52.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1218035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No22c50.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.792751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae4…5c60backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No70c49.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.985066%33 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No77c49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2720065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a39…cf39backed Yes33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No77c40.96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4213155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No70c40.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.21560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No40c40.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.118025%20 W · 60 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No34c40.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.681758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6210733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6b…07cbbacked Yes31c39.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes34c39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.215131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No74c37.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6914351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No73c35.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8411161.3%68 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes38c35.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No77c34.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.985881%47 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No36c33.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.264261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes41c32.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.454753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9518…6c1ebacked No77c32.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.471070%7 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No70c31.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5918669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c31.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1215766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No76c30.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.237951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53183.9%26 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.26556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c26.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3123459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No77c26.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.175383%44 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9eb5…3253backed No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.973100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6871…7cb8backed Yes47c25.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-49.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No77c23.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.528672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.778556.5%48 W · 37 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcca2…fa31backed Yes62c20.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-70%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.456437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No74c19.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.193174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes79c17.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…9575backed Yes63c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No77c15.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5818158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No77c15.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.584555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No69c15.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.827842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1514467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.