World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44c134262553ee2c3f3c45c7cdcb5867aa56c2b5c83c074469bc04560f466508
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 2,351$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.34 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 18c | 2,326$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 1,117$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 574.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 552.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 14c | 311.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 308.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 79c | 206.37$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 14c | 172$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 68c | 149.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 15c | 139.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 136.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 10c | 129.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 129.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 72c | 126.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 13c | 126$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 71c | 109.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed No | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 45cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 11c | 99.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 12c | 99.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 12c | 89.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 75c | 49.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 36.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 75c | 35.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 32.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.