World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54fc027ebe3ef509765a1ba79741d3741f0e2a6cdd2bc6bc8ffd8212a2379c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 14c | 905.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 19c | 568.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 397.11$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 8c | 336.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 267.42$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…64a7backed Yes | 16c | 244.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 8c | 237.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 5c | 223.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 9c | 220.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed Yes | 25c | 219.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 218.49$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 175.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 169.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 161.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 140.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 25c | 140.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…40a1backed Yes | 12c | 124.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 17c | 114.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 112.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 13c | 105.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…1c8fbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 16c | 98.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 21c | 88.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 88.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 16c | 83.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 83.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 22c | 73.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 21c | 72.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 70.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3114…eaaabacked Yes | 26c | 69.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 23c | 68.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 58.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 58.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 52.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 49.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 46.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 39.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 39.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 36.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 74c | 35.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed No | 78c | 32.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…cf5bbacked No | 76c | 23.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 23.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e17…5ff5backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.