Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2654aa33b3047d0d7379b3c3e55a9008ca8c6e924c18036bda9668e714c6a2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 24c | 6,224$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.49 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 22c | 1,328$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.74 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 69c | 1,045$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.78 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 13c | 397.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 321.15$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 78c | 301.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 67c | 294.17$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 201.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 61c | 192.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d9…cf16backed No | 54c | 186.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 67c | 140$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked No | 50c | 132.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 57c | 102$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 89.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…0426backed Yes | 63c | 77.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 60c | 53.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 65c | 49.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 44.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 35c | 36.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed No | 72c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 78c | 25.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 62c | 24.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 48c | 23.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 63c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.