Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2feb0c982d0fb9b502a21f1b51e7a31d4abdaa552d2c1374a9fe047b5f74c418
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,467$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 27c | 1,038$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.91 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 1,010$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 21c | 827.35$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.38 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 25c | 800$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.18 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 30c | 774.19$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 71c | 765.25$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.88 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 75c | 690.37$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.84 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 20c | 511.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 500.07$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 416.08$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 406.74$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 26c | 390$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 63c | 390$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 49c | 343.16$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 321.01$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 33c | 299.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 24c | 297.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 27c | 279.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed No | 79c | 278$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 26c | 276.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 29c | 260.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 260.01$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 39c | 255.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 26c | 255.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 29c | 248.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 25c | 220.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 79c | 205.9$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 204.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 40c | 201.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 193.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 22c | 180.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked No | 79c | 180$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 169$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 168.61$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 167.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 167.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 165.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 26c | 155$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 149.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 25c | 148.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 139.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 72c | 138.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…d2d1backed Yes | 40c | 127.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 127$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 23c | 121.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 120.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 35c | 119.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 106.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 38c | 105.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 104.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a3…49f9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…a6cdbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 97.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 40c | 91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 90.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Yes | 28c | 89.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…714fbacked Yes | 22c | 89.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 29c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 34c | 87.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…5011backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 22c | 83.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 79.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 30c | 77.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 32c | 75.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 22c | 72.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…abb3backed Yes | 30c | 69.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 65.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 72c | 61.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 27c | 59.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 59.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded9…0c22backed Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 51.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 51.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…c35ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.