Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf15292ca4bcf60636efd5251939c7e68841471d333ce06e0b45e3a111f341e46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 36c | 3,748$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.78 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 49c | 1,318$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.66 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 1,022$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 946.61$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 52c | 900.67$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.57 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 2c | 799.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 47c | 722.53$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.13 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 53c | 652.77$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.88 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 54c | 647.54$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.82 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 53c | 608.61$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.61 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 561.59$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 3c | 522.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7937…e074backed No | 63c | 511.92$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 479.16$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 40c | 454.29$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.09 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 40c | 446.74$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 52c | 430$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.51 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 61c | 425$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.91 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 44c | 400$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.73 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 348.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 343.04$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 53c | 331.03$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 319.36$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 43c | 300$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 58c | 269.46$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 42c | 260.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 253$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 52c | 248.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 62c | 221.71$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 49c | 215.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 211.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 46c | 206.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 43c | 205.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 65c | 205$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 45c | 200.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…6917backed No | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 40c | 199.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 73c | 193.31$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 45c | 192$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 41c | 189.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 180$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 14c | 179.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 170.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 169.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 165.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 65c | 145$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 144.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 144.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked No | 43c | 143.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 133$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 57c | 132.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 126.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…04fbbacked Yes | 73c | 125.18$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 39c | 124.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 123.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 64c | 117.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 13c | 117.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 59c | 116$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…bc42backed Yes | 35c | 113.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 53c | 113.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 43c | 106.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 104.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 103.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 57c | 100.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 57c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 58c | 98.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8570…a720backed Yes | 51c | 98.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 45c | 89.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed No | 45c | 89.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 46c | 84.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 47c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 79.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 44c | 79.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 37c | 79.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…aea7backed No | 47c | 76.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 67c | 75.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 66c | 75.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 38c | 74.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb162…fa5ebacked No | 65c | 73.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 30c | 72.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 51c | 72.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 60c | 71.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 55c | 70.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 54c | 69.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 45c | 68.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 65.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 65.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 65c | 63.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…bd3cbacked Yes | 54c | 62.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.