Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd58e81fcd7385a3342693204d3fca60f6ac7281bf126436d10874f10276f4f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 3,376$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.85 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,952$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 5c | 1,594$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 971.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…c766backed No | 75c | 797.23$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 757.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 14c | 714.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 705.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 699.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 649.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 27c | 648.94$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.75 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 3c | 621.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 27c | 571$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 3c | 515.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 507.86$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 505.08$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.33 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 464.42$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 22c | 361.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 359$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 277$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 29c | 246.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 27c | 241$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 234.6$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 19c | 219.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 28c | 206.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 190.4$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 17c | 189.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 179.49$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 169.94$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 77c | 163.6$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 163.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 156.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 156.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 22c | 139.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 76c | 131.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…125dbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 22c | 131$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 129.73$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 20c | 128.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 74c | 119.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 24c | 113.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 112.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 109.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 20c | 101.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 21c | 94.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 17c | 93.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 21c | 87.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4917…8bbebacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 84.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 28c | 83.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 82.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 78.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 18c | 77.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 32c | 76.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 72.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 24c | 68.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 23c | 67.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 24c | 66.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 75c | 65.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 60.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 76c | 55.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 55.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd491…d031backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 49.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cca…7e3abacked Yes | 22c | 46.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 77c | 45.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 45.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 77c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…07e8backed Yes | 29c | 36.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 35.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 32.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 28.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…7055backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 74c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.