Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7927c3d6b837c60daeb956df87469a65cf0378a17be07024151d7bbe6fbe0ee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 3,032$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…b9c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,085$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 22c | 1,800$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.86 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4144…b82abacked Yes | 1c | 1,503$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 3c | 771.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 398.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 392$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 10c | 328.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 18c | 255$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 16c | 254$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 14c | 241.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 227.86$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 220.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 182.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 9c | 159.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 148.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 142.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 142.22$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 133.88$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 129.41$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 124.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 117.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 12c | 102.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 18c | 94.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 16c | 78.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 75c | 73.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 72.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 67.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…4550backed Yes | 16c | 63.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 28c | 63.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 24c | 53.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 48.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 26c | 43.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 35.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…e4dcbacked No | 73c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 76c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 74c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.